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Supply Intelligence · Demand
Forecast Intelligence
Seasonal naive with a measured trend, accuracy you can recompute from the formula, and consensus adjustments that carry their evidence. SYNTHETIC actuals, MODELED forecast.
GC-4471 · trailing actuals vs forward forecast
12W BACK · 12W FORWARD
Evidence row
sourceSystem: SAP S/4HANA · sourceId: DET-01/MAT-4471 · field: planningParameters · value: LT 6w, MOQ 5000 · lastModifiedAt: 2026-07-18T09:12:04Z
Forecast accuracy
97.5%
MAPE = mean(|actual - forecast| / actual) over 12w = 2.5%
Bias
-0.5%
bias = (sum(forecast) - sum(actual)) / sum(actual) = -0.5%
Trend
0.23%/wk
trend = (last4 5716 - first4 5612) / first4 / 8 = 0.23% per week
Method
seasonal naive
forecast(w) = base 1400 x season(w) x (1 + trend x w); adjustments multiply committed windows only
Read-only by architecture. Recommendations execute in your systems of record. All figures MODELED; all records SYNTHETIC.